NSI conducted an evidence and multi-model based strategic analysis of the Sudan and Horn of Africa for Central Command that addressed three issues: root causes of the humanitarian crisis in the Sudan, the regional effects Sudan is having on the Horn of Africa, and conditions causing the Sudan to become a safe haven and harbor for nefarious activity.

Evidence and Model-Based Strategic Analyses of Sudan

NSI led a multi-modeling effort for US Central Command (CENTCOM) focused on a strategic assessment of the Sudan and Horn of Africa (HoA). The objective was to supplement CENTCOM’s strategic assessment of the Sudan and HoA with an evidence and multi-model based analysis by applying quantitative and computational social science models that addressed three concerns: (i) root causes of the humanitarian crisis, (ii) regional effects Sudan is having on the Horn of Africa, and (iii) conditions that are causing Sudan to become a safe haven for nefarious activity. We utilized techniques from our human behavior analytics to assess the merits of various quantitative and computational social science model approaches, along with developed tactics, techniques, and procedures that addressed how to rigorously integrate and leverage subject matter expert (SME) inputs with social science models.