NSI Portfolios

Over nearly 20 years, NSI has provided its products and services to numerous government and commercial organizations. Initially established to support the Department of War (DOW) in the national security space, NSI has expanded to include data-driven solutions (i.e., specialized, research-based technologicalproducts including analytic models, reports, and software components) in the human capital/data science spaces.

Our diverse and experienced team excels at applying various multidisciplinary data-driven analytical techniques and scientific methodologies to provide deeper analyses and clarifying insights. We focus on helping clients gain a deeper understanding of people and their behaviors, enabling them to make more informed and effective decisions.

National Security Portfolio

NSI provides organizations in the military and intelligence community with mission-focused solutions (i.e., specialized, research-based technological products including analytic models, reports, and software components) to complex decision-making problems that span a wealth of strategic and operational imperatives in the national security space.

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Geopolitical Risk Analysis Portfolio

NSI provides a range of analytic services (i.e., specialized, research-based technological products including analytic models, reports, and software components) to government and commercial organizations in the systematic study and assessment of how political decisions, international conflicts, regime changes, diplomatic shifts, and non-state dynamics (such as terrorism or civil unrest) impact global stability, trade, and economic markets.

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National Security Portfolio

National Security
SMA

A Framework for Integrated Influence and Deterrence

21st C. Deterrence Frameworks

NSI updated the Defense Analysis and Planning Support Environment (DAPSE) model, developed in 2007 for USSTRATCOM and USEUCOM, to guide planners and analysts through a systematic, subjective decision analysis-based analysis to identify deterrence levers by understanding an actors’ multi-dimensional decision calculus.
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National Security
SMA

Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph III)

Based on the GECM, NSI created the AECM which looked at how the trajectory of global challenges, such as revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, global disease evolution, etc. act as buffers and drivers of stabilizing and destabilizing activities including terrorism, violent conflict, economic growth and development, governance, corruption, humanitarian crises, and gender inequality.
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National Security
SMA

Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph I & II)

At the behest of the Director of Joint Force Development, NSI developed a system-of-systems model named Global ExploitableConditions Model (GECM) that assessed the relationships among global challenges in which major power competition is likely to occur in the future operational environment.
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National Security
SMA

China IW IOTA Analysis

China IW IOTA Analysis

In support of Valens Global on behalf of the Irregular Warfare Center, the NSI team applied its IOTA framework to outline a range of Chinese irregular warfare related activities and how those activities relate to strategic objectives and interests to gain insight into its implied strategy. The IOTA Framework is designed to illuminate the strategic impact of an actor’s activities—which can take place on different time scales, in different locations, and in different domains (diplomatic, information, military, economic)—yet align with the actor’s objectives in support of its key national interests. Understanding the relationships between a competitor’s activities (including those that are intentionally clouded), its theater and strategic objectives, and its high-level national interests provides analysts and decision makers with the context necessary to make sense of observed changes in activity.
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National Security
SMA

Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure

Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure

At the request of USSTRATCOM, the The team employed its expert elicitation capability ViTTa to quickly harness the expertise of the strategic deterrence community to assess whether theories of deterrence developed during the Cold War are sufficient for today’s complex operational environment.
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National Security
SMA

Measuring Information Effects: A Net Assessment

Integrating Info in Joint Operations

Using integrated state-of-the art information and communication theory combined with best practices from industry and governments (US/partners and adversaries), NSI conducted a net assessment of the strategic balances between the United States and its adversaries in their operations in the information environment (OIE). This net assessment event was part of an SMA effort to assess how the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information and influence into its activities across the competition-to-conflict continuum.
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National Security
SMA

Assessing Regional Dynamics in the Central Region

Assessing Regional Dynamics in the Central Region

NSI applied its ViTTa methodology to better understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics in the central region. ViTTa is an expansive and established virtual network of trusted subject matter experts, unconventional thinkers, brightest minds, foreign voices, and varied perspectives to craft timely and cost effective analyses to critical and complex problems.
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National Security
SMA

Discourse Analysis of Leader Speeches and Commentary

Discourse Analysis of Leader Speeches and Commentary

NSI has applied its discourse analysis to efforts ranging from measuring leaders’ cognitive complexity that precede armed conflict, rhetoric in nuclear and missile testing and peace negotiations, behavioral intentions of leadership, and sentiment in social media commentary.
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National Security
SMA

What the Kims Tell Us About Kim Jong-Un's Worldview

What the Kims Tell Us About Kim Jong-Un's Worldview

This quantitative discourse analysis of each of the DPRK’s leaders was conducted in historical frameworks in order to assess how Kim Jong-un is likely to negotiate relative to his father and grandfather.
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National Security
SMA

IRC Analysis Tool Applied to Western Pacific Region

IRC Analysis Tool Applied to Western Pacific Region

IRC (Interest-Resolve-Capability) analysis finds that retaining regional influence in the context of Chinese economic might and ambition requires significant change in the US’ approach to the region.
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National Security
SMA

NSI Pathways – Reconciliation and Reintegration

NSI Pathways – Reconciliation and Reintegration

This NSI Pathways analysis examines the degree of overlap between reconciliation and reintegration markers, along with an assessment of the status of these markers in Afghanistan.
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National Security
SMA

Chinese Worldview and Perspectives on Space: An Analysis of Public Discourse

Contested Space Operations

NSI applied it's discourse analysis to discern how language used in discussion about the space domain reveals the interests of state actors. Corpora from three sources were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge the Chinese government’s concerns in the space domain and how these interests are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Chinese perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.
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National Security
SMA

Middle East Unrest and Influences

Middle East Unrest and Influences

For the past several years NSI has provided US Special Operations Command Central Commander with a variety of research and analyses focused on the numerous conflicts, unrest, and the broader influences and regional dynamics of the central Middle East.
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National Security
SMA

US | NATO and Russia Strategic Interests

US | NATO and Russia Strategic Interests

NSI examined future political, security, societal and economic trends to help US European Command planners determine where US and NATO interests were congruent or in conflict with Russian interests as well as leverage points and their impact relative to Russian interests.
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National Security
SMA

Discourse Analysis Research for the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)

Discourse Analysis Research for the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)

Wirght-Patterson AFB had a need for a variety of language analyses and cultural assessments in support of operational units and their own research activities. NSI conducted a number of studies and developed tools for AFRL from 2009 to 2015. Those projects included: Analysis of Discourse Accent and Discursive Practices I&W; Analysis of Pashtun Narratives; The Expression of Trust in the Persian Language (Farsi); The Influence of Persian Worldview on Iranian Leaders’ Expressed Views of their Nuclear Program; Effect of Translation on Iranian Worldview Coding; and Cultural Assessment Module.
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National Security
SMA

Mapping the Violent Extremism Research Landscape

Mapping the Violent Extremism Research Landscape

NSI hosted a structured workshop to examine the current state of research into violent extremism for the Department of Homeland Security. The event brought together leading experts, policymakers, and academics to discuss the latest findings, identify gaps in knowledge, and explore emerging trends in the field. Discussions focused on understanding the motivations behind radicalization, the role of online platforms in spreading extremist ideologies, and the effectiveness of various counter-extremism strategies. The workshop aimed to foster collaboration and inform future research priorities to better address the complex and evolving threat of violent extremism.
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National Security
SMA

Social Media and Political Effects

Social Media and Political Effects

NSI conducted an overview of the current literature on the intersection of social media and off-line political events for an Intelligence Community client and found that it is the nexuses between social media and the socio-political-economic context that plays a pivotal role in furthering political debate and facilitating the dissemination of information.
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National Security
SMA

Ranking of Holistic Engagement Activities in Africa

Ranking of Holistic Engagement Activities in Africa

NSI’s Holistic Engagement Activities Ranking Tool (HEART) is a multi-criteria decision-analytic evaluative tool to analyze and optimize resources to objectives and assess and compare complex tradeoffs and changing priorities.
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National Security
SMA

Israeli-Palestinian Security Reform

Israeli-Palestinian Security

NSI participated in a collaborative review for the US Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority that evaluated strategic risks and identified knowledge gaps in future security environments and their implications to Palestinian security sector reform efforts.
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National Security
SMA

Stability Model (StaM) Assessments

Stability Model (StaM) Assessments

NSI has applied its StaM conceptual framework and analytic methodology to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, West Bank, and Dhaka Bangladesh providing decision-makers with a rich contextual understanding of the social, economic and governing stability dynamics.
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National Security
SMA

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

NSI participated in a large effort focused on identifying areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. The intersection of US and Chinese interests could represent either a source of conflict or opportunity for cooperation. The main question that US policy makers and planners must consider carefully is: Where and which Chinese interests are most likely to conflict with US global interests, and where may there be opportunities for cooperation? The primary objective was to provide decision-makers the tools to make better sense of the non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms at play in the complex environment in which they, and their competitors, operate in the Asia-Pacific region, and broaden the horizon of strategic thinking and inform planning.
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National Security
SMA

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

NSI conducted research and analyses for US Pacific Command identifying drivers of conflict and convergence in the Asia-Pacific region spanning the next two decades examining socio-political and economic trends and where US and Chinese interests converge or conflict.
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National Security
SMA

South Asia Fragmentation and Muddling Pathways Assessment

South Asia Fragmentation and Muddling Pathways Assessment

NSI conducted a fragmentation pathways analysis of Pakistan for the Joint Staff to determine what path it was on by creating theoretical propositions about the nature of pathways, tested these against 12 historical cases, and applied the refined pathways to Pakistan.
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National Security
SMA

Understanding Iranian Actions and Influence in the Central Region

Understanding Iranian Actions and Influence in the Central Region

NSI employed its ViTTa expert elicitation methodology to provide a rich contextual understanding of Iranian actions in the broader Middle East for US Central Command (USCENTCOM). Discussions with over twenty leading experts in geopolitics and Iran yielded four open source papers. The first ViTTa report describes Iran’s state-sponsored criminal enterprise, with a focus on popular sentiment in Iran related to these activities. The second report explores how Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence unit strategically influences Iran. The third report digs deeply into how Russia and China are attempting to influence Iranian decision-making. The fourth report considers how COVID-19 pandemic has impacted regime stability in Iran.
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National Security
SMA

Cultural Affairs Language for Informing Cultural Operations (CALICO)

Cultural Affairs Language for Informing Cultural Operations (CALICO)

CALICO was an US Army Corps of Engineers  analysis of a corpus of humanitarian relief organization documentation intended to reveal what the range of beneficiaries humanitarian relief organizations serve, what they do for them, and how such organizations operate administratively. NSI developed a coding taxonomy for capturing the organizations, beneficiaries, and relief actions discussed in the corpus. NSI used the taxonomy in automated text analysis to reveal associations between organizations and the activities they deliver to various beneficiaries, providing military operators deeper insights into what humanitarian relief organizations do, how they do it, who they serve, and how they can best work with them in humanitarian aid/disaster relief (HADR) operations.
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National Security
SMA

Tool to Represent, Analyze, and Collaborate on Knowledge for Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling (TRACK-HSCB)

Tool to Represent, Analyze, and Collaborate on Knowledge for Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling (TRACK-HSCB)

On behalf of Charles River Analytics, NSI evaluated whether a set of selected situation reports (SITREPs) contained information related to the social, cultural, or political context of relevant operations, which could in turn be used to inform the selection of socially aware courses of actions (COAs). To achieve this goal, NSI conducted a manifest content analysis to examine and extract HSCB-relevant information. Social, cultural, and political information is often unrecognized and unused in intelligence reports since the primary focus of these reports is identifying and assisting in the eradication of threat by kinetic actions.
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National Security
SMA

Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments: Measuring Afghanistan Progress (MPICE: MAP)

Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments: Measuring Afghanistan Progress (MPICE: MAP)

On behalf of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NSI used the methodological expertise of its multi-disciplinary team to make critical contributions to the iterative design and implementation of a robust multi-method, multi-wave data collection effort applying the MPICE metrics framework. The MPICE framework incorporates a hierarchical system of outcome-based goals, indicators, and measures designed to provide insight into the achievement of stabilization objectives over time.
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National Security
SMA

Countering Illicit Drug Trafficking

Countering Illicit Drug Trafficking

NSI conducted both organizational and social network analyses for a Navy counter-narcotics and trafficking program that automatically extracted entities, resolved variants, and related them to watch-log entries and the associated case or contact movement alert.
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National Security
SMA

Violent Extremism and Radicalization

Violent Extremism and Radicalization

NSI has conducted studies on how to counter extremist organizations, evaluated nuclear smuggling and terrorism risks, and modeled patterns of ethnic conflict, repression, and social unrest.
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National Security
SMA

Planning, Research and Intelligence Scalable Modeling (PRISM)

Planning, Research and Intelligence Scalable Modeling (PRISM)

NSI supported the DARPA-sponsored BAE Planning, Research, and Intelligence Scalable Modeling (PRISM) program in the following capacity: integration of the relevant social science research into the modeling and measurement; specification and development of computational models for inclusion in PRISM; design, development and population of the quantitative data repository and the data brokering capability to match model requirements to available data; and advisory support for the visualization framework.
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National Security
SMA

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife (ERIS)

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife (ERIS)

NSI provided the ERIS program—part of the Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program—with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the dynamics of ethnic conflict and the impact of military plans, policies and actions on the evolution of ethnic conflict. NSI integrated system dynamic (SD) and agent based (AB) models, informed by social science theory at both the micro and macro level, to assess effects of ethnic conflict, repression & strife.
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National Security
SMA

Socio-cultural Geo-Informatics Lab (SGIL)

Socio-cultural Geo-Informatics Lab (SGIL)

In the Socio-cultural Geo-Informatics Lab (SGIL) program, NSI built a state-of-the-art socio-cultural geo-informatics test bed to support assessment, test, and evaluation (T&E) as well as supporting the transition of Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) technologies. In order to support the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s HSCB modeling initiative, NSI collaborated with government, industry, FFRDCs, and academic partners to perform validation and applied research, early testing and transition of prototypes, maturing and hardening of test bed; testing and evaluation (T&E) of HSCB models; and specification of metrics.
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National Security
SMA

Rich Contextual Understanding of Pakistan | Afghanistan

Rich Contextual Understanding of Pakistan | Afghanistan

NSI planned, managed, and executed numerous social science modeling and analyses efforts for two projects focused on providing the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander with a rich contextual understanding of the Pakistan and Afghanistan region.
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National Security
SMA

HSCB Technical Performance Evaluations

HSCB Technical Performance Evaluations

The Human Socio-Cultural Behavioral modeling program (HSCB) funded dozens of modeling projects intended to develop cutting edge computational models to enable the Department of War and the US government more broadly to understand and operate in other cultures. The Army Geospatial Center coordinated the technical progress evaluations (TPEs) and NSI was a key participant. The TPE team developed evaluation criteria that considered scientific criteria such as the theoretical, methodological, and empirical grounding of the models and how data were used to support the models. A key focus of the program was to model the complex systems in which DoW personnel operated and models were assessed in terms of their ability to capture dynamics such as measuring 2nd and 3rd order effects and emergent phenomena.
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National Security
SMA

State and Non-state Deterrence

State and Non-state Deterrence

NSI has conducted research and analyses for US Strategic Command on concepts of nuclear strategy, how to use models/methods to better understand issues in deterrence, non-proliferation, and assurance, as well as development of decision analysis and planning tools.
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National Security
SMA

Human Terrain System (HTS)

Human Terrain System (HTS)

NSI supported the Army Human Terrain System (HTS) program by serving as the Senior S&T advisor to the program manager, as development oversight of the socio-cultural toolkit, providing training support and as part of the assessment team. In addition, NSI provided data collection and analysis services in support of the Human Terrain System program evaluation process. Services provided include design of the DOTMLPF assessment framework; design of observation protocols, interview specifications, and survey instruments; on-site observation and data collection at client sites in Iraq and Afghanistan; qualitative and quantitative analysis of observation, interview, and survey results; and DOTMLPF recommendations for program enhancements.
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National Security
SMA

Goals-Means (GM) Meta-Model: Integrating Social Environments, Tech Pathways and Decisions to Act

Goals-Means (GM) Meta-Model: Integrating Social Environments, Tech Pathways and Decisions to Act

NSI contributed a hybrid leadership decision-making Goals-Means (GM) meta-model to the IARPA PAINT (Proactive Intelligence) program. The primary benefits of this model were fourfold: (i) allowing insight into the likely intentions, strategies and choices of foreign leaders; (ii)enabling comparison of sets of potential decision outcomes as explicitly linked to empirical data analyses; (iii) allowing perturbations, modifications and updating of original input data; and (iv) accommodating both data-rich analyses and those analyses where available data is sparse.
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National Security
SMA

Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS)

Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS)

NSI supported both the DARPA ICEWS as part of the Government team, and the related COMPOEX program with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the decision dynamics of leadership groups and the impact of social influence and outside intervention on those decision dynamics.
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National Security
SMA

Counter-Terror Social Network Analysis and Intent Recognition (CT-SNAIR)

Counter-Terror Social Network Analysis and Intent Recognition (CT-SNAIR)

Counter-Terror Social Network Analysis and Intent Recognition (CT-SNAIR) was an MIT Lincoln Laboratory program that developed automated tools for terror threat network analysis and tracking, intent recognition, and capability prediction. NSI developed techniques for stochastic scenario generation of terrorist attacks, as well as modeling of terrorist social networks and their intentions at the transactional level.
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National Security
SMA

Strategic Assessment of the Sudan and Horn of Africa

Strategic Assessment of the Sudan and Horn of Africa

NSI conducted a multi-model strategic analysis of the Sudan for US Central Command that addressed root causes of the humanitarian crisis, regional effects Sudan is having on the Horn of Africa, and conditions allowing Sudan to become a harbor for nefarious activity.
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National Security
SMA

Automating Decision Support Tools for Military Planners

Automating Decision Support Tools for Military Planners

NSI supported the Irregular Warfare Technical Support Directorate (IWTSD) and a partner organization to develop a specialized software application based on NSI’s framework for integrated influence, known as the Defense Analysis and Planning Support Environment DAPSE. This sophisticated decision support tool is designed to be used on military systems worldwide.
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National Security
SMA

Strategic Multilayer Assessment

Strategic Multilayer Assessment

NSI has been providing analytical and programmatic support to the US Defense Department Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office for over a decade working the most complex and urgent national security issues affecting our military and intelligence agencies.
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Geopolitical Risk Analysis Portfolio

geopolitical risk analysis
SMA

Strategic Assessment of the Sudan and Horn of Africa

NSI conducted a multi-model strategic analysis of the Sudan for US Central Command that addressed root causes of the humanitarian crisis, regional effects Sudan is having on the Horn of Africa, and conditions allowing Sudan to become a harbor for nefarious activity.
View Project
geopolitical risk analysis
SMA

Stability Model (StaM) Assessments

NSI has applied its StaM conceptual framework and analytic methodology to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, West Bank, and Dhaka Bangladesh providing decision-makers with a rich contextual understanding of the social, economic and governing stability dynamics.
View Project
geopolitical risk analysis
SMA

South Asia Fragmentation and Muddling Pathways Assessment

NSI conducted a fragmentation pathways analysis of Pakistan for the Joint Staff to determine what path it was on by creating theoretical propositions about the nature of pathways, tested these against 12 historical cases, and applied the refined pathways to Pakistan.
View Project
geopolitical risk analysis
SMA

Middle East Unrest and Influences

For the past several years NSI has provided US Special Operations Command Central Commander with a variety of research and analyses focused on the numerous conflicts, unrest, and the broader influences and regional dynamics of the central Middle East.
View Project
geopolitical risk analysis
SMA

Israeli-Palestinian Security Reform

NSI participated in a collaborative review for the US Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority that evaluated strategic risks and identified knowledge gaps in future security environments and their implications to Palestinian security sector reform efforts.
View Project
geopolitical risk analysis

Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS)

NSI supported both the DARPA ICEWS as part of the Government team, and the related COMPOEX program with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the decision dynamics of leadership groups and the impact of social influence and outside intervention on those decision dynamics.
View Project

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