SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (LLNL) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

France and Britain are part of a Western democratic alliance; however, they have developed their own unique perspectives on nuclear deterrence, issues such as the three-body problem, and how to best confront Russian aggression. Both speakers, Dr. Tertais and Professor Chalmers, emphasized that their views were their own and did not represent the opinions of the UK and French government.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. James Siebens (Stimson Center) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.China has become a regional power in the Asia-Pacific with minimal use of its armed forces.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is impacting the current threat environment and showing that it can erode the fighting ability of states’ militaries. While well-designed information operations (IO) that support AI can strengthen militaries’ and governments’ security apparatus, it must be used carefully and thoughtfully

Drones are continuously revolutionizing the modern battlefield and have since they were first introduced. Some battlefield applications for drones are obvious, such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk, which are used to carry large payloads and are specifically designed for surveillance and warfighting. However, drones designed for the recreation or service industry and readily available online are also being used on the battlefield with increasing frequency. These commercial drones pose a unique threat to the security of military and commercial entities. They can be cheaply and quickly made—even in someone’s garage—while also being able to carry dangerous payloads. Mr. Hambling emphasized that for this and other reasons, cheap commercial electronics are changing the way that the US and other actors conduct warfare. Ukraine was mentioned by the participants as a testing ground for the mass production, repurposing, and use of commercial drone use in modern conflicts.

China’s government and its the military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), have been striving to close the gap between their technological capabilities and those of the US. China has been quickly modernizing its military since the early 1990s. Dr. Mulvaney emphasized that the control China’s government enjoys over the whole of Chinese society is one factor that has contributed to its quick advancement in the application to science and technology to its military.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has many implications for how warfighters operate on the battlefield, their leaders make decisions, and the training of employees in private industry. The present whole of society (WoS) impact of AI and its full potential is being studied and analyzed in real time by experts and field operators.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Johnson (University of Aberdeen) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

Fears of a potential conflict between China and either the US or its allies in the Indo-Pacific—especially over Taiwan—are intensifying. A potential conflict with China is worrying Indo-Pacific experts about the potential for renewed aggression from an opportunistic DPRK. Mr. Garlauskas emphasized that the deterrence landscape has been constantly shifting, placing regional US security interests in danger during the oncoming decade. One risk of beginning a conflict with either the DPRK or China is that it will result in a conflict with both states. There are several plausible pathways for Chinese and DPRK aggression that would increase the likelihood to a multi-state conflict in the region. Factors influencing these pathways include factors like opportunism by actors, escalation dynamics, and regional geography. However, because of pre-existing distrust between Chinese and DPRK leadership, a coordinated and simultaneous offensive against the US or its allies in the region is highly unlikely.

During the last 25 years, China has strengthened its ability to economically coerce governments, companies, multilateral institutions, and individuals, bringing them in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) desires. She summarized China’s statecraft as a “clearly communicated set of rewards and punishments based on gatekeeping access to China’s huge markets, capital, and investments.” China uses its influence over markets as a vector for measuring illiberal political will among corporations and governments. China’s economic statecraft is purely political in nature. This means that any government, corporation, or individual who does not abide by the CCP’s guidelines are subject to sanctions. Ms. Allen emphasized that this is a juxtaposition to US and Western statecraft, in which sanctions are used to further multilateral goals of the liberal order.