Background: The DOW Future Cyber Workforce Forecasting Study is a multiphase study being conducted by Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) on behalf of the Department of War (DOW) Chief Information Officer’s (CIO) Workforce Innovation Directorate (WID). The study seeks to determine how DOW can best build and equip the future cyber workforce with the skills required to assume future job roles and defend against looming threats, especially AI-enabled malware and the advent of quantum computing.

Phase I

Phase I began in October 2025, as the research team developed the Cyber Workforce Ecosystem Model (CWEFM), which illustrates the interconnected nodes across education, employment, industry, technology, and organizations that shape cyber security environment. The model’s node edges were also weighted and validated, allowing the model to show the strength of secondary and tertiary effects throughout the system when one node is affected. To validate the CWEFM and fill knowledge gaps, the research team conducted three series of focused expert interviews: (1) Disruptive Technology and Workforce Skills, (2) Skills Acquisition and Credentialing, and (3) Hiring and Talent Management. These focused interview series leveraged expert elicitation from cyber practitioners, educators, and senior leaders to fill knowledge gaps surrounding focus nodes in the CWEFM and identify areas for future research.

An in-person forecasting and backcasting workshop involving industry, government, and education practitioners was held to examine potential scenarios for how the two most pressing looming threats—AI-enabled malware and the advent of quantum computing—will affect the future needs of the DOW cyber workforce. Workshop findings helped expand knowledge about how these emerging threats will shape the threat environment and how they can be countered.

Phase II

Phase II began in July 2026 and focuses on expanding DOW cyber workforce generation and development in the face of disruption and insecurity. Phase II will expand knowledge, explore solutions, and result in actionable recommendations on how DOW can expand and strengthen its current workforce. Several planned deliverables include a quick look at best practices for skills-based hiring, a narrative-driven digital short, an academic fellowship focused on cyber education, and a cybersecurity-related speaker series.

Reports

DOW Future Cyber Workforce Forecasting Gap Analysis—Final Report | NSI

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