SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. David J. Katz (USSOCOM) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series. JADE SPEAR began as a grassroots initiative with the goal of holding the Chinese shipping company, Pingtan Marine Enterprises, responsible for illegal and unethical fishing practices. It was started by nearly 30 action officers across 15 US departments, who volunteered their time. Since it began in 2020, JADE SPEAR has more than tripled the number of action officers taking part, doubled the number of participating departments, and has begun cooperating with seven US allies. JADE SPEAR targeted Pingtan Marine Enterprises through several efforts, including revoking the visas of Chinese workers, enhancing regulatory inspections of fishing vessels, revoking fishing licenses, and conducting counter-brand campaigns against the fishing company and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) among others. Mr. Katz commented that many of these efforts yielded positive outcomes. For example, 15 visas were revoked, and several examinations of fishing boats showed extreme violations that led to Pingtan Marine Enterprises being sanctioned by the US government and delisted by the Nasdaq.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Ron Deibert (Professor of Political Science and Founder & Director, The Citizen Lab, University of Toronto) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Spyware, made by private companies and employed by governments, is a direct threat to digital technology users around the world. Dr. Deibert, founder and director of the Citizen Lab, an interdisciplinary laboratory studying digital espionage and surveillance, online transparency and freedom, and other Internet technologies, suggested that the widespread use of this spyware is even partially responsible for the current global authoritarian backslide. By studying incidents of digital espionage, they’ve helped victims of intrusive spyware by diagnosing the infection and sometimes identifying the offending company and government.

Fraym, a geospatial data company, combines survey and satellite data using advanced machine learning to produce population information with 1km2 resolution. In their presentation, Ms. Turner and Mr. Santiago discussed hyperlocal views of populations near Kenyan Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, particularly views towards the US, China, the US military, and BRI projects. Survey data and analysis show the US and China are both viewed positively in Kenya, 89% and 75% respectively; adults with favorable views of one country often have favorable views of the other. Kenyan’s sentiment toward the long-term and short-term impacts of the BRI are different. Fear of unemployment, debt, and displacement are associated with the short-term effects of BRI projects. For example, Mr. Santiago cited that 62% of Kenyan’s believe that an increase in Chinese workers will increase Kenya’s unemployment rate. There are also some fears relating to a debt trap surrounding Kenyan infrastructure and Chinese loans. However, as these fears abate over time and positive long-term effects of the BRI are felt, Kenya’s sentiment toward the BRI may become positive. Also, there is differing levels of sentiment towards increasing involvement of the US in Kenya. Reasons for support for increasing US involvement are increased security, a transfer of training and knowledge, and new advanced technology among others. Reasons for hesitancy relating to an increase of US involvement are that the US will attract enemies, general distrust, and fears that increased US involvement will bring back colonialism.

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. John “Patsy” Klein (Falcon Research, Inc.; George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute) and Mr. Dean Cheng (Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Users Advisory Group of the National Space Council) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.The US and China are locked in a grand geopolitical competition that includes continuous use of deterrence against each other. Mr. Cheng emphasized that China and the US conceptualize deterrence very differently. The US primarily conceives of deterrence as a dissuasive tool used to preemptively stop an adversary’s aggression, while the primary Chinese conceptualization of deterrence, wēi-shè, also includes coercion. China approaches wēi-shè holistically, using many different leverages of national power, such as economic deals. Sometimes, the US is unprepared to deter adversaries because it prepares to deter actors that mirror itself, commented Dr. Klein.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Justin Sherman (Founder & CEO, Global Cyber Strategies) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.Russia and China are using their private sectors to strengthen their cyber defensive and offensive capabilities. Russian and Chinese companies have purposely uploaded flawed code to international communication companies’ open-source coding.. For example, Huawei, China’s large information technology company, has been the largest contributor to Linux code; however, it has uploaded 30 lines of code that exhibit suspicious behavior. Pushwoosh, a company based out of Russia, pretended to be an American company and gained access to the US Army’s security software, and wrote code for its cyber defense. While Russia does not have a telecommunications company the size as Huawei, the Kremlin is very active with its online coding and hacking communities. It is relying on private industry to bolster its defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.

Technologies that connect to a warfighter at a cognitive and physiological level collect valuable data, giving military leaders insights on their soldiers’ fighting readiness. A better understanding of the warfighters’ readiness will give these leaders an inherent strategic advantage over their adversaries. The most effective use of these technologies will be collecting data on physical traits of warfighters that can be placed into an already existent scientific model. Some of these measurable traits are sleeping patterns—which can indicate a warfighter’s readiness—or the likeliness of falls and strokes, commented Dr. Huberdeau. Traits that are hidden in the warfighters’ cognition will be much harder to quantify and map out.

Climate change is forcing Africans from their communities as local resources and economic opportunities dry up. The African continent produces only 3% of global Co2 emissions; however, it suffers the most from the resulting climate change effects. Climate change effects on the African continent are forcing short-term intra-regional and inter-regional climate migration across Africa. The misleading perception of climate-migrants fleeing Africa is causing countries in Europe and other regions to create reactionary and protectionary immigration policies, stated Dr. Mbiyozo. This intra-continental migration will continue to increase as global warming and climate change affects intensify and resources become more scarce. There could be more than 85 million internal climate-related migrants if the average global temperature increases by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Not all Africans being affected by climate change are able to move to communities with better access to the necessary resources. Many Africans—especially women—are caught in the poverty trap, making them immobile.

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.

Human-machine learning and technology that cognitively connects operators to technology has strong implications for the future of warfare. Dr. Wright stated that new technologies will not replace workers or warfighters; however, those without the skill sets required to operate the technology will be replaced by those who can. Much of this technology will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI). The capability of AI has grown significantly during the last decade. Twelve years ago, AI was able to successfully to discern dogs from cats, while today it can generate its own images of dogs, cats, and dog-cat hybrids. Artificial intelligence has also demonstrated the ability to answer complex problems in recent years. For example, a professor asked ChatGPT a scientific question and received a correct and highly sophisticated answer that received an A grade. Ultimately, the interface between AI and the user will be imperative to its success in the field. Dr. Wright reminded the audience that poor interface in fighter jets during WWII lead to the death of several pilots because they pressed the incorrect switch instead of the correct switch next to it while landing.