The Gray Zone is defined differently by many organizations, academics, and think tanks. Dr. Potter commented that despite Gray Zone being used mostly as a trendy term relating to strategic competition, its concepts were created from real life obstacles facing decision makers. However, because it has many different definitions, the Gray Zone is difficult to encapsulate using analytical tools. Inconsistencies among the multiple definitions of “Gray Zone” inhibit effective conversations and the term Gray Zone can be used too frequently as a political talking point. Additionally, the academic literature discussing the Gray Zone is lacking. There are many reports from think tanks, but few academic articles that discuss what the Gray Zone is and its implications for modern strategic competition.

Wars throughout history have skewed peoples’ beliefs on the likelihood of states going to war with each other. The number and frequencies of wars in the past have made it a commonly held belief that states are likely to go to war. However, state leaders are more likely to avoid military conflict, using it as only a last resort. For example, India accidentally fired a missile into its generational rival, Pakistan, earlier this year, but managed to avoid war. Dr. Blattman emphasized that countries avoid military conflict because war is costly and ruinous; especially between two nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan. He identified five reasons why states sometimes ignore war’s costly nature: 1) unaccountable leaders, 2) ideological leaders, 3) leaders’ and their advisors’ biases, 4) uncertainty of a war’s costliness, and 5) the lack of trust between states to commit to a diplomatic deal.

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

There is an increasing global concern relating to information disorder, including its effects on the Global South. Information disorder, as defined by the speakers, includes misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation. Much of the conversation surrounding information disorder focuses on social media; however, it is not a new phenomenon and has been historically prevalent in newspapers, television, and other forms of legacy media. Prof. Wasserman added that popular cultural forms of communication, like music and satire, have even fulfilled the journalistic function for some people, undermining the power of traditional journalism media even further.

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred at a time when the global community was more physically and digitally connected than ever before. Mr. Kerbel reflected that those working in the information community (IC) believed that the pandemic would alter their collective worldview and modus operandi. However, he believes that while a larger portion of the IC works from home than ever before, the pandemic did not actually change the IC’s worldview. Instead, while global COVID-19 rates have started to decrease, members of the IC have already started to shift their mindset back to Cold War-era thinking. This is partly because the IC is built to handle complicated issues well, but it is not currently structured to achieve its objectives in a modern world comprised of complex systems. For example, the cyber domain and digital realm did not exist during the Cold War. These developments have led to the addition of an entirely new theatre of asymmetric warfare since the Cold War. Mr. Kerbel also argued that even though some members in the IC believe that countries are going through a phase of deglobalization and that the US is decoupling from China, neither of these hypotheses are true.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.

Climate change is having adverse effects throughout Sub-Saharan Africa—especially on pastoralist communities. As climate change continues to increase surface temperatures, increase temperature extremes, and make marine heat waves more frequent, extreme precipitation and drought events will occur more frequently. Extreme precipitation and drought will likely exacerbate the region’s widespread food insecurity. Further food insecurity has long reaching affects, including strength of governance and adult literacy. Twenty-one percent of Africans are already suffering from malnutrition. Furthermore, the growing variability in precipitation and drought affects pastoralists’ access to water, which is an extremely important resource to their livelihood. Professor Galvin mentioned Kenya as an example for how important pastoralism can be to a country. Kenya is comprised of 80% rangelands that supports 10 million people. Pastoralism is responsible for 10%-to-13% of Kenya’s GDP.

Escalation between China and Taiwan over Taiwan’s sovereignty is increasing, leaving the US and its allies with few options if China blockades Taiwan. While Taiwan nearly monopolizes the production of advanced semiconductor chips, this monopoly does not shield it from Chinese aggression. Dr. Martin argued that its control of advanced semi-conductor production may give it a reason to bargain with China. This reason is partly because Taiwan relies heavily on China for both its exports and imports. Furthermore, China is significantly better positioned economically to outlast Taiwan if it becomes sanctioned for overt aggression.

Despite being considered economically hopeless during the mid-2000s, African countries and their trade have grown dramatically in recent years, attracting attention from China and other international actors. This vast economic growth led African countries to create the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). AfCTA—which was officially signed in 2021—includes 55 member states and is the second largest free trade organization in the world behind the World Trade Organization. Professor Signé commented that several factors exponentially increasing African trade include: growing household consumption of goods, fast-paced urbanization, many cellphone users, and Africa’s growing share of the global population. While there are many positive indicators for economic growth and inter-continental African trade, AfCTA faces several serious barriers to economic and trade growth.