SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Tom McTague (The Atlantic) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Mr. McTague’s presentation expanded on his article in The Atlantic, published in May 2020, entitled “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming.”

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Amb. Ronald F. Lehman II (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) and Maj Gen (Ret) Bill Chambers (Institute for Defense Analyses [IDA]) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.

The war in Ukraine is one of the most visible conflicts in history, partly because of the prevalence of smartphones in Ukraine (61%). Moreover, 85% of Ukrainians possess an active mobile-broadband subscription, allowing them to share images and photos of the war instantaneously.

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Dr. P. W. Singer (New America) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Singer first stated that the advancement of robotics and AI technology has been rapid over the past 10+ years.

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Sir Lawrence Freedman (King’s College London) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Sir Lawrence presented a series of lessons that can be learned from the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in the UK.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University Medical Center/Naval War College) as a part of its new speaker series with the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), entitled “COVID-19: Second- and Third-order Effects—System Shocks, Disruption, and Emergence.”

The novel coronavirus pandemic is upending societies and their assumptions. Going forward, one of its most significant legacies will be the way that the pandemic dovetails with another major global disruption of the last few years—the rise and spread of digital surveillance enabled by artificial intelligence (AI).

The pandemic is a game-changer—not business as usual. This brief forecasts the possible Impact Futures on US National Security and the operational environment, given COVID-19. Pandemic Geopolitics. China’s Neo-Mercantilism, The New Normal, the Perfect Storm, the Mad Max Scenarios. Great Power clashes. Rise of New Autocracies. Threat Convergence Futures.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Weston Aviles (NSI), Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kunztown University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC), AND Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI).At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study in August 2019 to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. CENTCOM asked SMA research teams to consider how drivers of instability in the region—to include long-term internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for black swan scenarios—could be mitigated across PMESII levers of national power.

Dr. Dorondo and Dr. Jiang discussed how China’s and Russia’s relationships with key actors in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) will play out in the short term (2020-2025), the medium term (2025-2035), and the long term (2035-2045). Dr. Dorondo highlighted that, in the short term, one can anticipate a movement from an unstable status quo towards significant change, including a new great power rivalry involving China and Russia (on the same side) and the US. In the medium term, one can expect a “Colder War” political dynamic in the CENTCOM AOR, as well as a transition from a US-centric regional alignment to a Russia-centric regional alignment with Chinese engagement involved as well. In the long term, one can anticipate more authoritarian regimes than democratic states in the region, continued conflict amongst great powers, and a rebalanced regional power structure. Dr. Jiang then stated that China is the stronger of the two powers—Russia and China—even though it still has a relatively new presence in the CENTCOM AOR. Thus far, China has focused on regional security and the expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the area. Dr. Dorondo added that Russia and China will act in pursuit of their goal to weaken US dominance in the CENTCOM AOR and might collectively seek to create new alliances with regional actors. As a result, the US cannot afford to cease defending its interests and maintaining its long-established relationships with nations in the region. Moreover, he US has the ability to counter Russian and Chinese influence by strengthening its own relationships with nations within the CENTCOM AOR and by using Russia’s and China’s shortcomings to its advantage. To conclude, Dr. Dorondo stated that China’s and Russia’s alliance with key players in the CENTCOM AOR will present a geostrategic challenge to the US. Therefore, an effective overarching strategy must be developed to guide US-China and US-Russia relations moving forward.