SMA Publications

Venezuela Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Author | Editor: Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Data

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Venezuela were analyzed: 2006 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2014 Venezuelan Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI) data on income by occupational category.

Results

Income data provided by the World Bank (2006) and occupational data from ENCOVI (2014), shows a Venezuelan population that is extremely risk acceptant with a mean Arrow-Pratt score of -7.15, the second highest in the world.

Significance for Risk Taking and Stability

Venezuela’s lowest and highest socioeconomic classes are extremely risk acceptant. The Venezuelan political and economic crisis is causing a shortage of living essentials for most of its population (Garcia- Navarro, 2016). How most of its population lives is in stark contrast to those working in the petroleum industries, or political elites who enjoy a high quality of living from low-priced goods and luxury items purchased from the black market.

Implications for US Interests

The United States has strong security interests in Venezuela but has little direct influence over what occurs in the country while President Maduro remains in power (Neghaiwi, 2019). Instead, the United States relies on economic sanctions to place political pressure on President Maduro in the hopes of seeing him removed from office. The US supports the opposition leader Juan Guaido’s claim to the presidency. While President Maduro retains his power, the US must rely on Switzerland, which has been acting as a conduit between the US and President Maduro, to represent US interests. The extremely risk acceptant segments of Venezuelan society indicate that turmoil will continue between aggrieved constituencies supportive of Maduro and Guaido and across socioeconomic classes.

Implications for China’s Interests

China has sunk billions of dollars into Venezuela in the form of financial aid (Rendon, 2018). If President Maduro retains his power, China will retain a tremendous ally in Latin America that it will be able to control through debt (Sigalos, 2019). However, if President Maduro is replaced by Guaido, then China stands to lose much of the money it has loaned Venezuela as well as access to cheap oil. The continued turmoil presents a dynamic situation from which China may either benefit if Maduro retains power or lose of Guaido prevails.

Implications for Russia’s Interests

Russia has invested money and military personnel in Venezuela on a smaller scale than China, however its desired end is also to see President Maduro retain his power (Sigalos, 2019). Russia’s interaction with Latin America is partially driven in response to the US and NATO activity in the Balkans and former Soviet republics. Sigalos also states that this is a part of a larger economic strategy that is contingent on Russia growing its markets outside of countries in the European, Union including investments in Venezuela’s petroleum industry (Lowe & Sagdiev, 2019). To both of these ends, if President Maduro secures his presidency, then Russia will gain an important political ally in the region and access to cheap petroleum. As with China, Russia’s interests hang in the balance while a highly divided, discontented and risky accepting population supports their political rivals.

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Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.); Aviles, W. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:

• Where aggrieved populations are likely to exist globally and how they may be operationalized against US interests.
• The effects of global climate change on state stability.
• The forms of instability that may challenge US interests (political instability, autocratic regimes, violent extremism, adversarial proxies).
• The causes and effects of mass migration.

Previous academic research was used as the starting point for this study, and it was challenged to approximate the data challenges of intelligence analysis as well as to re-test earlier findings and update models by considering new and potentially relevant variables. Three statistical models (political stability, terrorism, and migration) were developed under these conditions to address the J39 questions. The key findings were:

• Political instability is driven by hunger, risk acceptant elites, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, weak democracy, mountainous terrain, economic isolation, and ethnic division.
• Terrorism is fueled by large populations, ties to MENA oil producers, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, economic isolation, and a risk acceptant middle class.
• Migration from undeveloped countries is driven by hunger, a youth bulge, homicide and political oppression, and
• Migration to developed countries is driven by permissive immigration policies and the attraction of national wealth.

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Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.); Aviles, W. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:

• Identifying where aggrieved populations are likely to exist globally and how they may be operationalized against US interests
• Anticipating the effects of global climate change on state stability
• Identifying the forms of instability that may challenge US interests (political instability, autocratic regimes, violent extremism, adversarial proxies)
• Identifying the causes and effects of mass migration
• Understanding Chinese interests and strategies in specific countries and their impacts on US interests
• Understanding Russian interests and strategies in specific countries and their impacts on US interests

Six broad patterns in inequality, risk sensitivity, and social disruption emerged from these analyses.

• Baselines. Two countries were used to baseline all other comparisons.
  • Finland—The world’s most stable society is also one of the world’s most egalitarian and therefore least acceptant of risk. The population also is homogenous, lacks a history of feudal inequality, and has a high level of education. The Finnish population’s lack of risk acceptance and high level of education appear to have inoculated its population against Russian attempts at disruption through social media.
  • The United States—The US was chosen as a baseline because of its familiarity to the researchers and intended audience of this report. The US has a highly risk acceptant population increasingly divided along class, race, and rural/urban divides. Furthermore, much of the middle class is experiencing loss aversion due to losses suffered in the Great Recession of 2009, which have not been regained. Adversaries have effectively used this risk acceptance to sow discord through social media.
• Risk Acceptant Populations—Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, and Venezuela have populations that are entirely or mostly risk acceptant
  • The primary effect of widespread risk acceptance is extremely high homicide rates, confirming research that demonstrates a connection between inequality and homicide.
  • In Nigeria and Venezuela, inequality between ethnic groups and/or classes has given rise to extremely disruptive protests, rebellions, and terrorism. Social unrest in Nigeria threatens oil production, investments, and the political stability of Africa’s most populous country, which all great powers desire. Social unrest in Venezuela threatens Russian and Chinese investments in propping up an adversarial government to the US.
  • Honduran and Mexican inequality and risk acceptance has fueled illegal migration and created disruption at the US border and further division among the US population.
  • Widespread risk acceptance in China has caused little disruption because of the state’s ability to suppress dissent, and to sustain growth that provides opportunities for a population hungry for advancement. However, protests in Hong Kong and Xinjiang are symptoms that when wealthy Chinese feel threatened (Hong Kong) or minorities (Uighurs in Xinjiang) perceive unfair gains for Han Chinese, the state will be challenged. A key to China’s mitigation of the risk acceptance of its population is to sustain a high rate of growth, which the Chinese economy may not be able to do in the future.
• Loss Averse Populations—A number of the countries in the sample are experiencing real or perceived economic losses, leading to loss aversion, risk taking, and unrest.
  • European countries in this sample (Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, Serbia, United Kingdom) largely experienced either real or perceived losses and threats to their livelihoods and cultures from immigration, placing their populations into highly risk acceptant, loss averse, frames. This has manifest in challenges to their political status quo (Brexit) and the rise of right-wing challenges to their governments. Russia has exploited the situation to weaken European governments, the integrity of the European Union, and NATO.
  • Dramatic losses in status by working class Pakistanis fueled the rise of maverick populist Prime Minister Imran Khan.
  • Real and sustained economic losses in the Venezuelan economy have contributed to unrest.
  • Losses from a softening oil market and US sanctions are exacerbating upper-class risk acceptance and rural/urban differences, although the Iranian government’s ability to suppress dissent will probably contain any serious challenge to the government.
• Agrarian Populations—Agrarian societies are characterized by extreme levels of inequality and consequently, risk acceptance. This was especially the case in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Most of these countries are also distinguished by sharp ethnic divides in access to wealth and opportunity, and all of them have a distinct impoverished rural vs. relatively wealthy urban divide. These divisions and inequalities create highly risk acceptant populations with grievances against other ethnic groups and urban elites, fueling social unrest in many forms including ethnic conflict, rebellion against the government, and terrorism.
• Typical Populations—A typical society has an impoverished, risk acceptant class of poor, a distinct and risk averse middle class, and a highly risk acceptant elite. India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Serbia, and South Korea have such a typical profile.
  • In the cases of Japan and South Korea, low inequality in relation to other countries has supported social stability, although there has been a shift toward a more nationalistic government in Japan.
  • India and Indonesia have so far been able to mitigate degrees of risk acceptance in some segments of their populations through continued economic growth. However, their agrarian and rural/urban divides and their ethnic diversity pose a challenge to stability.
  • Russia’s and Serbia’s communist past has left a legacy of relative equality compared to most countries, despite the rapid growth of their economies since the fall of the Soviet Union and a continued concentration of wealth among oligarchs. For now, indications are that Russians and Serbs are not risk acceptant enough to pose a serious challenge to their governments.
• North Korea—There is probably no more unequal country than the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Virtually all wealth is concentrated in an extremely small cadre at the very top of society. Furthermore, the Kim regime punishes all dissent extremely harshly and effectively. This provides common North Koreans, who are struggling to survive, with virtually no incentive to rebel or to take any risky course of action such as escape through immigration. They are predicted to be risk averse. In contrast, the fight for the spoils among the elite is expected to generate intense competition and challenges at the top. There is some evidence that challenges have occurred. However, the Kim family has so far punished any challenge, even from close relatives, extremely harshly, effectively quashing any dissent. The DPRK is a truly unique case.

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United Kingdom Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Author | Editor: Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Data

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in United Kingdom were analyzed: 2015 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for years 2017 and 2011.

Results

Income data form the World Bank and occupational data from ILO indicate that the United Kingdom is highly risk acceptant. Despite this similarity, the relationship between wealth attainment and risk acceptance between the two sources is different. The World Bank data indicates a country in which the individuals who make the highest incomes are the least risk averse. while the data from ILO shows a positive relationship between the average income for an occupation and an increase in risk aversion.

Significance for Risk Taking and Stability

The United Kingdom’s propensity for risk taking can be currently observed through the UK’s referendum to leave the European Union, which is planned to take place later in 2019 (BBC, 2019). However, the impact Brexit will have on stability and the UK and its institutions is still unknown as it has been delayed repeatedly.

Implications for US Interests

The United States has an important relationship with the United Kingdom as it has been a long time ideological and political ally against autocratic states including Russia. The US also holds the UK as a strategically important player due to its current position in the EU (Belin, 2019). The United Kingdom has been a US ally in its activities outside of Europe against Chinese encroachment into the South China Sea. Despite this, economic changes from the UK leaving the EU will occur within the next year, challenging the US-UK relationship. The scope and impact of these changes has yet to be understood. The economic changes that will occur have far reaching implications because of the large trade between the US and UK (United States Trade Representatives, 2019). Much more important than their trade relationship is their political partnership, both strategically with respect to security/coalition issues and with respect to soft power (Belin, 2019). The UK’s risk acceptant population is a risk to the US interests because this population has chosen disruptive political and economic changes that may destabilize the country.

Implications for China’s Interests

China sees a post-EU United Kingdom as a potential economic partner. The UK’s planned exit from the EU has led to Chinese economic overtures, suggesting a potential free-trade deal and the connection of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to London (Johnson, 2019). China and the UK have little political differences with one other than the UK’s joint military operations with the US (Kelly, 2019). Despite the UK’s close ties to the US, its risk acceptant population gives China an opportunity to increase its standings politically and economically as it looks to extend its BRI to London (Johnson, 2019).

Implications for Russia’s Interests

Russia has little direct influence within the United Kingdom. Other than their historic ties as two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, the two countries are fundamentally at odds with each other on an ideological level (House of Commons, 2017). While the upcoming Brexit may offer the opportunity to soften Russian-UK relations, it is unlikely to cause wide ranging or deep changes. Despite the unlikelihood of changes in Russia and the UK’s relationship the UK’s risk acceptant population provides Russia an opportunity, as Brexit will weaken the UK’s connection to the EU.

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Author(s): Klipstein, M. (Army Cyber Institute, West Point); Minter, A. (Army Cyber Institute, West Point); Pittman, J. (Amy Cyber Institute, West Point)

Report Preview

In our increasingly digital society, military operations and civilian-alike rely heavily on the technological tools that connect us. Social media has become a powerful influence tool to sow discord, sway sentiment, and purport cause for actions that otherwise would be condemned by the international community. Cellular services have become the default mode of communication. And the amount of data collected continues to grow. The convergence of information operations, electronic warfare, and cyberspace operations have brought a new paradigm to nations in friction or conflict. Distortion and delivery of information allow the perception of ‘truth’ in populations that in turn can move a nation’s course of action. These realities alone are challenging; when US adversaries use cyber capabilities, the result could have a drastic effect on the ability to wage war and retain the status we enjoy in the international community. We examine the holistic information space ten years into the future to better understand how the information environment will interact with governments and society. This paper draws four predictions that will affect nations if the current trend continues. These trends include the diminishment of the United States on the global stage, the rise of China in computing supremacy, cultural division and schism continuing fueled by online news and information sources, and finally, nation-states fighting conflicts further “upstream” in the information space to prevent conflict or eliminate its necessity. In conclusion, the authors recommend questions that governments must seek answers to in order to stay
competitive in this environment.

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Malicious Non-state Actors and Contested Space Operations

Authors: Rachel Gabriel (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) and Barnett Koven (START)

Executive Summary

This report provides an analysis of potential threats to space-based systems posed by non-state actors. It places particular emphasis on the need to consider the space domain as part of a multi-domain threat environment where domains are interconnected and interdependent. This research devotes significant attention to examining the nexus between space and cybersecurity, and to the strategic vulnerabilities posed by the increasing integration of cyber and space technologies in critical infrastructure.

It proceeds by examining the nature of cross-domain threats, and the space-cyber nexus. It then provides an overview of potential space-based threats and risks. Subsequently, the report develops a typology of malicious actors based on their motives and capabilities. Importantly, this report evaluates the risks that each type of actor might pose individually or in concert with other types of actors. While some non-state actors with malicious intent possess the requisite capabilities to directly threaten space-based systems, many groups possess only malicious intent or the requisite capabilities – not both. Consequently, considering non-state actor collaboration is especially necessary. This report also highlights how space-based capabilities, such as open-source satellite imagery, can be (and indeed, has been) exploited by nonstate actors to further their terrestrial objectives. Finally, it concludes with some recommendations to increase resiliency.

In disaggregating threatening groups by motivation and capabilities, this report finds that of all the types of actors, cyber warriors backed by nation states have the greatest potential and interest to interfere in space. In contrast, more traditional violent non-state actors (VNSAs) have the most limited capability, and probably the smallest interest, in interfering in space. Despite this, it is clear that VNSAs do have much to gain by exploiting space-based technologies (e.g., for intelligence collection, propaganda) in support of their terrestrial activities.

While many of the scenarios contained in this report are largely hypothetical, they are possible. Specifically, at least some non-state groups already possess many of the requisite capabilities and malicious intent. Moreover, there are numerous known security deficiencies in commercial space technologies. As commercialization of the space domain and the number of new commercial entrants increase, existing vulnerabilities will become more pronounced, and additional vulnerabilities will be created. In short, the expansion of multinational commercial space operations is outpacing the ability of governments to anticipate or regulate activities in this domain. Moreover, as space-based capabilities become ever more important to economic activity and terrestrial infrastructure, they also become more attractive targets.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Contested Space Operations: Space Defense, Deterrence, and Warfighting project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.

Malicious Non-state Actors and Contested Space Operations

Authors: Rachel Gabriel (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) and Barnett Koven (START)

Executive Summary

This report provides an analysis of potential threats to space-based systems posed by non-state actors. It places particular emphasis on the need to consider the space domain as part of a multi-domain threat environment where domains are interconnected and interdependent. This research devotes significant attention to examining the nexus between space and cybersecurity, and to the strategic vulnerabilities posed by the increasing integration of cyber and space technologies in critical infrastructure.

It proceeds by examining the nature of cross-domain threats, and the space-cyber nexus. It then provides an overview of potential space-based threats and risks. Subsequently, the report develops a typology of malicious actors based on their motives and capabilities. Importantly, this report evaluates the risks that each type of actor might pose individually or in concert with other types of actors. While some non-state actors with malicious intent possess the requisite capabilities to directly threaten space-based systems, many groups possess only malicious intent or the requisite capabilities – not both. Consequently, considering non-state actor collaboration is especially necessary. This report also highlights how space-based capabilities, such as open-source satellite imagery, can be (and indeed, has been) exploited by nonstate actors to further their terrestrial objectives. Finally, it concludes with some recommendations to increase resiliency.

In disaggregating threatening groups by motivation and capabilities, this report finds that of all the types of actors, cyber warriors backed by nation states have the greatest potential and interest to interfere in space. In contrast, more traditional violent non-state actors (VNSAs) have the most limited capability, and probably the smallest interest, in interfering in space. Despite this, it is clear that VNSAs do have much to gain by exploiting space-based technologies (e.g., for intelligence collection, propaganda) in support of their terrestrial activities.

While many of the scenarios contained in this report are largely hypothetical, they are possible. Specifically, at least some non-state groups already possess many of the requisite capabilities and malicious intent. Moreover, there are numerous known security deficiencies in commercial space technologies. As commercialization of the space domain and the number of new commercial entrants increase, existing vulnerabilities will become more pronounced, and additional vulnerabilities will be created. In short, the expansion of multinational commercial space operations is outpacing the ability of governments to anticipate or regulate activities in this domain. Moreover, as space-based capabilities become ever more important to economic activity and terrestrial infrastructure, they also become more attractive targets.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Contested Space Operations: Space Defense, Deterrence, and Warfighting project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.

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Malicious Non-state Actors and Contested Space Operations

Authors: Rachel Gabriel (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) and Barnett Koven (START)

Executive Summary

This report provides an analysis of potential threats to space-based systems posed by non-state actors. It places particular emphasis on the need to consider the space domain as part of a multi-domain threat environment where domains are interconnected and interdependent. This research devotes significant attention to examining the nexus between space and cybersecurity, and to the strategic vulnerabilities posed by the increasing integration of cyber and space technologies in critical infrastructure.

It proceeds by examining the nature of cross-domain threats, and the space-cyber nexus. It then provides an overview of potential space-based threats and risks. Subsequently, the report develops a typology of malicious actors based on their motives and capabilities. Importantly, this report evaluates the risks that each type of actor might pose individually or in concert with other types of actors. While some non-state actors with malicious intent possess the requisite capabilities to directly threaten space-based systems, many groups possess only malicious intent or the requisite capabilities – not both. Consequently, considering non-state actor collaboration is especially necessary. This report also highlights how space-based capabilities, such as open-source satellite imagery, can be (and indeed, has been) exploited by nonstate actors to further their terrestrial objectives. Finally, it concludes with some recommendations to increase resiliency.

In disaggregating threatening groups by motivation and capabilities, this report finds that of all the types of actors, cyber warriors backed by nation states have the greatest potential and interest to interfere in space. In contrast, more traditional violent non-state actors (VNSAs) have the most limited capability, and probably the smallest interest, in interfering in space. Despite this, it is clear that VNSAs do have much to gain by exploiting space-based technologies (e.g., for intelligence collection, propaganda) in support of their terrestrial activities.

While many of the scenarios contained in this report are largely hypothetical, they are possible. Specifically, at least some non-state groups already possess many of the requisite capabilities and malicious intent. Moreover, there are numerous known security deficiencies in commercial space technologies. As commercialization of the space domain and the number of new commercial entrants increase, existing vulnerabilities will become more pronounced, and additional vulnerabilities will be created. In short, the expansion of multinational commercial space operations is outpacing the ability of governments to anticipate or regulate activities in this domain. Moreover, as space-based capabilities become ever more important to economic activity and terrestrial infrastructure, they also become more attractive targets.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Contested Space Operations: Space Defense, Deterrence, and Warfighting project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.

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Author | Editor: Yager, M. (NSI, Inc).

Executive Summary

This white paper deals with broad topic of assessing options to gain better understanding of the subjective world of populations we need to interface and relate to. How can we reliably anticipate behavior patterns? Our challenge is gaining the most accurate and useful information for commanders and other agencies for planning purposes. Who are the right people to try to influence to achieve strategic goals (individuals and/or groups). Which behaviors are we targeting? Why do people display those particular behaviors? Finally, how do we coordinate operations to drive the desired behaviors? We cannot rely entirely on social media (we must blend it with other intelligence), even though it can be an important contributor. This White Paper is intended to provide recommendations for planning methodologies, technological approaches, and required expertise.

Contributors

Brig Gen Alexus G. Grynkewich (Joint Staff), Dr. Hriar “Doc” Cabayan (Joint Staff), Mr. Robert C. Jones (SOCOM), Col. Scott K. Thomson (Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Policy)), Dr. Spencer B. Meredith III (NDU), LTC (Dr.) Gregory S. Seese (JHU-APL), LTC (Dr.) Rafael E. Linera (USASOC), Mr. Erinn McQuagge (Northop Grumman), Ms. Patricia DeGennaro (TRADOC G2), Mr. Randy Munch (TRADOC G2), Dr. Diane DiEuliis (NDU), Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown), Dr. Ian McCulloh (John Hopkins), Ms. Laurie McCulloh (Fielding), Dr. Jason Spitaletta (JHU-APL), Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (Univ. Birmingham, UK), Dr. Margeret Hall (UNO), Dr. Gina Ligon (UNO), Ms. Clara Braun (UNO), Dr. Laura Steckman (MITRE), Mr. Clark McCauley (Bryn Mawr), Ms. Sophia Moskalenko (Bryn Mawr), Mr. Tom McCauley (Univ. Rochester), Mr. Dan Foy (Gallup), Mr. Chris Stewart (Gallup), Dr. Linda Durnell (Fielding), Dr. Garry Hare (Fielding), Dr. Gwyneth Sutherlin (Geographic Services), Mr. Mark Polyak (Ipsos Public Affairs), Dr. David C. Ellis (Joint Special Operations Univ.), Dr. Katie Ziemer (Ipsos Public Affairs), Mr. Howard Simkin (USASOC G9), and Dr. William D. Casebeer (Lockheed Martin ATL)

Authors: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.)

Top-Level Findings

This paper reports a number of the top-level findings from the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project requested by the Joint Staff and USINDOPACOM. They are based on an integration of the results of the eleven different analytic efforts included in the project.

Finding: There are impediments to North Korean denuclearization on multiple layers making it highly unlikely and extremely difficult to achieve under foreseeable conditions.

Finding: Increased US-PRC tensions (the “new Cold War”) may work to Chinese advantage if regional actors are forced to choose between US guns and Chinese butter; US seen as disruptive or unengaged.

Bottom Line: The US role and approach to satisfying its objectives in the Pacific may be at a crossroads. Long-term US influence in the Pacific may require a change in the way the US perceives “regional leadership” and the activities that go with it.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.